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Quantomental

01 October-Issue 34

FED cleared the path-Italian budget agreed

Major last week’s events:

Major next week’s events:

JPY

I am expecting one more week of stronger USDJPY and weaker EURJPY.

My last entry level was not triggered. I would short EUR/JPY at 132.32

Snapshot improved:

Strengths of JPY:

Weaknesses of JPY:

Watch:

CAD

I am entering short USD/CAD at 1.3150 targeting 1.2690

Snapshot improved.

Strengths of CAD:

Weakness of CAD:

Watch:

AUD

I am long AUDUSD. My reasoning is that it all boils down to Australian Household consumption. Low numbers are contained, any big number will shot AUD higher

Snapshot unchanged:

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch:

 

USD

A 25bps rate hike per quarter is the norm and now the question at the latest Q&A session of FOMC meeting, became what would trigger the stopping of tightening. Slowing down of job growth, a sharpe increase of wages or inflation, or a decline of headline GDP growth was the answer.

I would short EURUSD at 1.1830

Snapshot unchanged:

Points to be considered

Watch:

 

EUR

I keep my short EUR/USD bias for another 2 weeks. I am entering short at 1.1830

Snapshot mixed:

Strengths of EUR/USD:

Weaknesses of EUR/USD:

Watch:

GBP

I will wait to see the outcome of the Conservatives Party Conference that has already started.

I am thinking of entering short GBPUSD at 1.3268

Snapshot deteriorated:

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch:

 

Disclaimer

Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA

labis@email.com

https://quantomental.com

https://dxml.wordpress.com

Readers checking the returns at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix will notice a leveraged trade on AUDUSD opened on 24 August that ruined the hard earned statistics of 0.5 montly Sharpe Ratio. I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger than I am used to, and my reaction to the mistake was a series of new wrong actions.

This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other persons.

Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Any research in this document has acted by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report as he is an active trader.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

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