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04 June_Issue 17

Report for 04 June-08June

Paddling-Staring-Committing

Exceptionally good results for last week’s offered ideas. Only two ideas [to search going long AUDUSD at 0.7474 level and to enter long EURUSD at Tuesday’s European opening], both hit bulls-eye and ended my last report’s expressed frustration, when I was communicating my regret for having jumped off early, instead of curving/staying in the winning long safe havens trades (i.e. long USD, long JPY).

Major last week’s events:

Major next week events:

JPY

JPY strengthened across the board, braking easily all significant technical levels, but is now back at the levels it has been a week ago.

I could easily short EURJPY in case 129.18 ~129.39 levels are triggered.

Snapshot unchanged:

Strengths of JPY:

Weaknesses of JPY:

Watch:

EURJPY

CAD

Bank of Canada did not surprised markets, but I believe that it is set to increase rates in the future as economy is running at full speed. The main concern was not the slightly decreased GDP reading, but rather the uncertainty from trade policies and Canadians reactions to the new mortgage rules. My focus becomes housing market and lending.

I could take short USDCAD positions in case 1.3138 level is triggered.

Deteriorating Snapshot:

Strengths of USDCAD, weakness of CAD:

Weaknesses of USDCAD, strengths of CAD:

Watch:

USDCAD

AUD

I am biased to go long AUDUSD at 0.7517 and 0.7498 levels and long AUDJPY at 0.8150 level, following the upcoming monetary meeting. Before that, I want to see increasing new home sales.

Snapshot unchanged except from decreasing bond yields:

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch:

AUDUSD

USD

The FED meeting in two weeks, could well include the second rate hike for 2018, while at the same time USA is dealing with the consequences of infuriating all of it’s allies. An isolated USA was the theme in latest G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Summit.

Snapshot with mixed signals:

Strengths of USD:

Weaknesses of USD:

Watch:

Source:https://www.treasury.gov US Goverment bonds

EUR

The Italian political situation seems to be contained. Remember what was at stakes at the beginning of 2017, 18 months ago, when EUR/USD was trading at 1.06 and managed to jump above the 200MovingAverage in one weekend, following the first Sunday of France elections. Back then, the possibility of Lepen and Melenchon winning the first round was real. Yet, French elected Macron and Germans at the end approved a new Merkel’s government with the support of SPD. Trying to enforce unrealistic agendas was something that Greeks payed hard. No reason to live one more similar drama.

At current EURUSD levels, and with the different point in business cycle of European and American economy, on the one hand I keep my short EUR/USD bias, but on the other I cannot offer an entry point.

Snapshot improving:

Strengths of EURUSD:

Weaknesses of EURUSD:

Watch:

EURUSD

GBP

Snapshot unchanged:

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch:

GBPUSD

Disclaimer

Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA

labis@email.com

https://dxml.wordpress.com

This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other persons.

Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Any research in this document has acted by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report as he is an active trader.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

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