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#64 Simultaneous strengthening of USD-Oil-Equities

Simultaneous USD-Oil-Equities strengthening

Terrorist attack in Cristian Churches of Sri Lanka, Persuasive US Equities Earnings and 1Q19 US GDP growth.

Produced the Goverment of Sri Lanka following last weekend terrorist attacks in Churches and Hotels that killed 359 people. The map summarizes the terrorists attacks against Cristians during Eastern.

20 minutes read report, 9 pages

To help speed reading blue is used for new arguments, forecasts are underlined and found at the beginning of each page, hyperlinks are marked.

How the forecasts did:

As of the last week, USD has been treated as a safe haven that strengthens when the risk-off mode prevails. This filter needs to be re-examined as USD is strengthening during risk-on mode.

Global economy is not completely out of the woods yet, but the rebound scenario continues being confirmed by several macroeconomic releases.

With the exception of the GBPUSD forecast, that has not been triggered, all of the last week’s forecasts failed. The long EURJPY trade is 42pips in the red, the long AUDUSD trade is 53pips in the red, the short USDindex trade is73 cents in the red and can easily rally for another 50 cents. No forecast was given for USDCAD and the call to exit the long EURUSD trade, that has been opened since the 15 of April week, proved to be correct .

Major events of last week:

Major events of next week:

JPY

Long EURJPY at 124.17 and 123.54

 

Strengths of JPY:

 

Weaknesses of JPY:

Watch / New Releases:

AUD

Short AUDUSD at 0.71.08

 

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch / New Releases:

CAD

Long USDCAD at 1.3383 and 1.3369

Strengths of CAD:

Weakness of CAD:

Watch / New Releases:

USD

The USDindex could easily rally for another 50cents testing the 98.28$ level. Yet, keeping the short trades, exiting at 97.18$ and go long at 97.00$ is prudent.

 

Strengths of USD – Risk off points:

Weaknesses of USD –Risk on points:

Watch / New Releases:

EUR

No forecast for EURUSD. Fundamentals are pointing to a continuation of the downtrend, but are not sufficiently disappointing to make the pair cross south the next technical significant levels.

Strengths of EURUSD:

Weaknesses of EURUSD:

Watch / New Releases:

GBP

No forecasts for GBP

The Brexit soap-opera managed to not hit the global headlines for the last 7 days. Prime Minister May is having more troubles with her Scottish MPs, as nearly 40 percent of voters who backed the Scottish Tories two years ago have now switched to the unblushing Nigel Farage.

 

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch / New Releases:

Disclaimer

Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA

labis@quantomental.com

https://quantomental.com/

https://dxml.wordpress.com/

I am thanking Petros Kalligas,CFA. The cooperation has been enjoyable for both of us. It was very valuable for me to have a reader of my report, willing to correct syntax errors and typos before publishing the report and sending it to you. Without having the structure, nor the funding of a news organization, I had enjoyed the privilege to have an editor, editing my writings.

Redistribution is allowed as long as the author and his contact details are referenced.

My net returns are published in real time at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix I was experiencing an Annual Sharpe Ratio of 1.73 for over 45 months (montly Sharpe ratio above 0.5) . On 24 August, I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger that I am used to. My equity level is currently back on track, but my statistics are no longer impressive. My 48 months monthly Sharpe Ratio, that includes the leveraged AUDUSD trade, now stands at 0.30, equal to 1.03 Annual Sharpe Ratio.

This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other person.

Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investments involve an element of risk.

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Any research in this document has been independently produced by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report, as he is an active trader.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

 

Opinions expressed in the report do not represent the opinion of Zulutrade and do not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade.

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