Major events of last week:
- UK: The prospect of Brexit arrangements being discussed to infinity, at the same way that the US debt ceiling is being discussed, is getting higher. That is our main scenario since the issue 58, repeated at issues78 and 88. The EU offered Boris Johnson a new Brexit deal but the UK parliament insisted (322-306) to delay voting it, effectively obliging the Prime Minister to ask for an extension of the 31 October Brexit deadline. Worth remembering that the law that obliges the PM to ask for an extension was voted by a 328-301 majority, the May’s deal was rejected three times (202-432, 242-391, 286-344), and the Tories enjoy 287 seats.
- USA-EU-Turkey-Russia: The USA put their $100bn trade deal with Turkey on hold, and increased the tariffs to Turkish steel, up to 50%. Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo visited Erdogan and made him agree to a 5 day ceasefire in Syria. Next Tuesday, Erdogan will meet Putin.
- US-China: Chinese diplomats need to inform the State Department for any meeting with US officials or representatives of research institutes and organization, the same way that US diplomats are obliged to do in China.
- EU: On the one hand, one could celebrate the disapproval of Victor Orban’s candidates in Hungarian local elections, on the other hand one could focus on the ongoing protests in Barcelona against the Supreme Court’s rule to give long sentences to Catalan leaders.
- USA-EU tariffs: The 10% tariffs on aviation products and 25% on European cheese and wine, took effect. The EU could fine Broadcom for anti-competititve behavior.
- US-North Korea: Big announcements are expected from Kim Jong-Un following his horse riding at the most sanctum mountain of North Korea.
- Protests : USA will annually certify the respect of human-rights in Hong Kong, following a decision of the Democrats controlled US House. Protests in Chile, Lebanon and Catalonia.
- Cryptos: Total market cap stands at $217bn (-3% w/w, -43% from the 2019 high, -73% from the all time high of January 2018).
Major events of next week:
- UK Parliament voting. A deadline extensions and general elections are within the probable outcomes.
- Canadian General Elections on Monday.
- Monetary meetings of the ECB and Norges Bank on Thursday.
- US earnings season continues with Procter& Gamble, Lockheed Martin, and Harley Davidson on Tuesday, Boeing and Ford on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday.
Disclaimer
Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA
For the readers of the report:
Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. Any research in this document has been independently produced by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose, and is intentionally written in first person. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report, as he is an active trader.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
Opinions expressed in the report do not represent the opinion of Zulutrade, XM or any other company that is being advertised and do not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade.
For qualified perspective clients of the advisory service:
GIPS standards are all about full, fair, consistent and comparable presentation of actual returns of the past. No models, no back-testing, no promises. I am doing that. I am publishing in real time, via a 3rd party, my actual returns since inception where one can see the most strict, comparable, revealing metric of the industry: the monthly Sharpe ratio.
My current monthly Sharpe ratio stands at 0.27 as can be found at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix
My current annual Sharpe ratio is 0.27 multiplied by √12 = 0.27 x 3.46=0.93 Annual Sharpe Ratio
The numbers used to stand at 0.5 monthly Sharpe ratio and 1.73 annual Sharpe ratio up until the August of 2019 for 45 consecutive months. On 24 August 2018, I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger that I am used to. My equity level is currently back on track, but my statistics are no longer as impressive as they used to be. My 54 months, since inception, monthly Sharpe Ratio (that includes the leveraged AUDUSD trade) stands at 0.27, equal to 0.93 Annual Sharpe Ratio.
I cannot claim that I will be performing with the return of my best months, but I can tell that I will hover around my average returns. Claiming with a 95% confidence, that my next month* return will be within my average monthly return ± 2 standard deviations is a well educated statement I can make anytime.
My average monthly* return ± 2 standard deviations is from -16.54% up to 20.49%
My average monthly* return ± 2 stadard deviations becomes -5.74% up to 9.47% , excluding the 4 months effect of the one time mistake trade.
* the monthly returns are the actual returns within a month. They are not presented on annualized basis.