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#53_Fog in the channel

12 minutes read report, 9 pages

To help speed reading green is used for numbers that have a risk-on effect, red is used for numbers with risk-off effect, blue is used for new arguments, forecasts are underlined and found at the beginning of each page.

How the forecasts did:

It’s been an awful week for my forecasts in all fronts. Long AUDUSD, short USDCAD, short USD, long EURUSD are all in the red. No forecast has been made for EURJPY and GBP.

The risk-off mode, with the significant downward revisions of EU’s projections and equities sell-off, was beyond my expectations during the Chinese holiday week. The risk-off mode could easily end if the upcoming US-China trade negotiations conclude.

Major events of last week:

Major events of next week:

JPY

Long EURJPY at 123.54

Strengths of JPY:

Weaknesses of JPY:

Watch / New Releases:

AUD

Long AUDUSD at 0.7015

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch / New Releases:

CAD

No forecasts for CAD

Strengths of CAD:

Weakness of CAD:

Watch / New Releases:

USD

I keep my ground and favor short USD index positions

Strengths of USD – Risk off points:

Weaknesses of USD -Risk on points

Watch / New Releases:

EUR

I am favoring long positions, but first I want to see a reversal pattern emerging before committing to buy.

Strengths of EURUSD:

Weaknesses of EURUSD:

Watch / New Releases:

GBP

No forecasts for GBP

We are only 7 weeks away from the deadline of Article 50 and I am still favoring an extension of the deadline, new elections and/or a new referendum, as the most likely outcomes

British and European negotiating teams will re-engage the next week.

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch / New Releases:

Disclaimer

Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA

labis@email.com

Redistribution is allowed as long as the author and his contact details are referenced.

The snapshot section of each page, contains the latest published figure of major macro releases. It is not a result of now-casting models that would potentially have revealed the effects of current US government shutdown. The coloring of bond yields depends on more than one equation/rule.

My net returns are published in real time at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix I was experiencing an Annual Sharpe Ratio of 1.73 for over 45 months (montly Sharpe ratio above 0.5) . On 24 August, I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger that I am used to. My equity level is currently back on track, but my statistics are no longer impressive. My 48 months monthly Sharpe Ratio, that includes the leveraged AUDUSD trade, now stands at 0.30, equal to 1.03 Annual Sharpe Ratio.

This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other persons.The degree of confidence in our forecasts gets smaller, the more knowledge we posses for each security.

Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Any research in this document has been produced by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report as he is an active trader.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

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