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#54_“Negotiations are doing well, but who knows what that means”

12 minutes read report, 9 pages

How the forecasts did:

None of my forecasts of last week were triggered. I have noted that the risk-off mode of the first week of February could easily end, if the US-China trade negotiations have a positive outcome, but I was unwilling to call what would happen.

I am favoring the continuation of the risk-on mode.

Major take events of last week:

Major events of next week:

JPY

Long EURJPY at 124.70

Strengths of JPY:

Weaknesses of JPY:

Watch / New Releases:

AUD

Long AUDUSD at 0.7095

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch / New Releases:

CAD

Long USDCAD at 1.3162 and long AUDCAD at 0,9408

Strengths of CAD:

Weakness of CAD:

Watch / New Releases:

USD

Short USDindex at 0.9736

Strengths of USD – Risk off points:

Weaknesses of USD -Risk on points

Watch / New Releases:

EUR

Long EURUSD at 1.1273

Strengths of EURUSD:

Weaknesses of EURUSD:

Watch / New Releases:

GBP

No forecasts for GBP

We are only 6 weeks away from the deadline of Article 50 and the most probable scenario is the extension of the deadline, new elections and/or a new referendum.

Prime Minister May lost a parliamentary vote regarding Brexit for the 10th time. The hard-line Brexiters from her conservative party abstained.

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Watch / New Releases:

Disclaimer

Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA

labis@email.com

Redistribution is allowed as long as the author and his contact details are referenced.

The snapshot section of each page, contains the latest published figure of major macro releases. It is not a result of now-casting models that would potentially have revealed the effects of current US government shutdown. The coloring of bond yields depends on more than one equation/rule.

My net returns are published in real time at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix I was experiencing an Annual Sharpe Ratio of 1.73 for over 45 months (montly Sharpe ratio above 0.5) . On 24 August, I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger that I am used to. My equity level is currently back on track, but my statistics are no longer impressive. My 48 months monthly Sharpe Ratio, that includes the leveraged AUDUSD trade, now stands at 0.30, equal to 1.03 Annual Sharpe Ratio.

This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other persons.The degree of confidence in our forecasts gets smaller, the more knowledge we posses for each security.

Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Any research in this document has been produced by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report as he is an active trader.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

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