#47_31 December

If one picture is 1K words, what is the story of 4 pictures?

2 minutes read report, 2 pages

How the forecasts did:

This week’s photos comes from the latest G7 meeting that potentially characterized 2018. The famous one is on the top left corner. The rest do not tell the same story.

It pays when you spot a market move that is driven by a non-fact because eventually the price discovery mechanism will sort things out. It does not pay, but it is wise to acknowledge the validity of different angles.

I made no forecasts for the past week, I am doing the same today.

Major events of the last week:

  • USA-China: Mid level officials from the USA and China are expected to meet in mid January, as we are moving towards the end of the 90 days trade truce.

  • Ukraine-Russia-EU-US: Russia has built a 60km fence on the border with Ukraine.

  • USA: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has called top US Banks executives to talk about market stability. US Equities reached a -12.70% ytd level on Monday (-20.45% from October’s all time high) and closed the week with a +6.82% rally. Meanwhile, the government shutdown continues.

  • TPP-11: The multilateral trade deal between 11 countries including New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Japan, Canada and Mexico comes into force, eliminating 98% of tariffs in the new trade zone. The USA had withdrew from negotiations since 2017.

  • Cryptos: Total market cap increased significantly to at $131bn, +3% w/w, -84% from January’s $821bn peak.

Major events of next week:

  • No market moving event under my radar.

  • Enjoy New Year’s Eve!


Issued by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA




Redistribution is allowed as long as the author and his contact details are referenced.

Readers checking the returns at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix will notice a leveraged trade on AUDUSD opened on 24 August that ruined the hard earned statistics of 0.5 montly Sharpe Ratio, for over 45 months. I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger than I am used to. My equity level is currently back on track, but my statistics are no longer impressive.

This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other persons.The degree of confidence in our forecasts gets smaller, the more knowledge we posses for each security.

Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.

This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.

Any research in this document has been produced by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report as he is an active trader.

Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

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