And the beat goes on, with asset prices heading north and words loosing their meaning
Editorial:
The ongoing dramas that got markets’ attention are bringing the same feeling of frustration and are having the same rhythm as the song “We didn’t start the fire, it was always burning since the world’s been turning”.
US-China trade disputes, Huawei ban, Google stops supplying the Android Operating system to Huawei, Google restarts supplying Huawei as the restrictions were looser than initially thought, China stops importing Canadian meat
(…)
constructive talks, frank dialogue, reciprocal steps, tariffs threat, tariffs on hold, tariffs commence, multilateral approach via the WTO, bilateral agreements
(…)
protests in Hong-Kong over contradictions to China, protests in Taiwan against the Chinese propaganda, climate change, Paris agreement is being referred
(…)
Iran nuclear deal, oil exports ban, nuclear deal not saved by the EU, Iran to exceed the uranium stockpiles limits, tankers sabotaged in the Gulf of Oman, sanctions on Iranian negotiators, warships at the region, no intention of war.
(…)
Municipal elections lost by Erdogan, Turkey intents to install Russian S400 within the next weeks, drillings at the north coast of Cyprus, USA reacts
(…)
No inflation pressure, full employment, decreasing manufacturing, decreasing investments, central bankers ready to react cutting rates.
(…)
Yields drop, crypt-currencies rally
“No we didn’t light it, But we tried to fight it”
Last week, the long EURJPY forecast at 121.65 hit bulls eye and the advised holding of the long AUDUSD trades paid off. No other presented entry level has been triggered.
Major events of next week:
- OPEC and OPEC+ summit in Vienna.
- Monetary meeting of the RBA (Central Bank of Australia)
Disclaimer
For the readers of the report:
Redistribution is allowed as long as the author and his contact details are referenced.
This material is for Qualified Investors and Professional Clients only and should not be relied upon by any other person.
Past performance or past accurate forecasts is not a guide to future performance and the accuracy of future forecasts and should not be the sole factor of consideration. All financial investment decisions involve an element of risk.
This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.
Any research in this document has been independently produced by Labis Michalopoulos, CFA for his own purpose. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. The author has an interest in the currency pairs, indexes and any other security disclosed in this report, as he is an active trader.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
Opinions expressed in the report do not represent the opinion of Zulutrade and do not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade.
For qualified perspective clients of the advisory service:
GIPS standards are all about full, fair, consistent and comparable presentation of actual returns of the past. No models, no back-testing, no promises. I am doing that. I am publishing in real time, via a 3rd party, my actual returns since inception where one can see the most strict, comparable, revealing metric of the industry: the monthly Sharpe ratio.
My current monthly Sharpe ratio stands at 0.27 as can be found at www.forexfactory.com/dxmix
My current annual Sharpe ratio is 0.27 multiplied by √12 = 0.27 x 3.46=0.93 Annual Sharpe Ratio
The numbers used to stand at 0.5 monthly Sharpe ratio and 1.73 annual Sharpe ratio up until the August of 2019 for 45 consecutive months. On 24 August 2018, I mistakenly ordered to open a position 10 times bigger that I am used to. My equity level is currently back on track, but my statistics are no longer as impressive as they used to be. My 54 months, since inception, monthly Sharpe Ratio (that includes the leveraged AUDUSD trade) stands at 0.27, equal to 0.93 Annual Sharpe Ratio.
I cannot claim that I will be performing with the return of my best months, but I can tell that I will hover around my average returns. Claiming with a 95% confidence, that my next month* return will be within my average monthly return ± 2 standard deviations is a well educated statement I can make anytime.
My average monthly* return ± 2 standard deviations is from -16.54% up to 20.49%
My average monthly* return ± 2 stadard deviations becomes -5.74% up to 9.47% , excluding the 4 months effect of the one time mistake trade.
* the monthly returns are the actual returns within a month. They are not presented on annualized basis.