#86 UN General Assembly

US-Japan little deal, UK Parliament resumes


The UN General Assembly week included the ceremonial signature of the trade deal between the USA and Japan, new Trump impeachment scenarios, the EU blaming Iran for the attacks in Saudi Arabia and at the same time announcing that the 2015 nuclear deal should be respected.

We would avoid offering a general view for the next week, even while it seems like the worse is already priced in, and we will continue offering our forecasts at the full version of the report.

Major events of last week:

  • USA-China: Face-to-face negotiations are scheduled for the 10th of October.
  • USA-Japan: The trade deal includes the elimination of tariffs on US agro products, reduction of tariffs on Japanese manufacturing products and rules on the $40bn digital trade between the two countries. US agreed to not raise tariffs on Japanese cars.
  • Cryptos: Total market cap tumbles at $216bn (-19% w/w, -42% from the 2019 high, -73% from the all time high of January 2018). A sudden drop of bitcoin’s mining power was the reason that triggered the fall.
  • Macros: Disappointing EU Manufacturing PMI on the one hand and increasing M3 on the other. The US core PCE is falling confirming that the recent two rate cuts performed by the FED was the prudent thing to do.

Major events of next week and the month of October:

  • Chinese manufacturing PMI release on Monday, German final manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, non-farm employment change on Friday.
  • Monetary meeting of the Central Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday

Major events of October:

  • The scheduled increase of the Japanese VAT
  • The 70th anniversary of Peoples Republic of China
  • The EU-Russian summit against terrorism
  • The full employment of the S-400Russian missiles in Turkey
  • The Brexit deadline
  • The end of Mario Draghi’s term
  • The Canadian elections

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