#95 Risk On while Brent collapsed

Last week:

  • Germany: The leftist Nober Walter Borjans and Saskia Esken duo won the leadership elections of the SPD, the Social Democrats party that support the coalition government in Germany. One way to interpret the result is that it risks the viability of the current government and could potentially lead to snap elections. Another way to interpret it, is the rising probability of an aggressive, German, fiscal expansion that would help both the European economy and the EUR.

    Demonstrations in Berlin by German farmers

  • USA: Negotiations with the Talibans in Afganistan have restarted.
  • Turkey: Trial against the NGO Instanbul 10 resumed. The former Amnesty International director in Turkey is being charged.
  • China: The consortium of Investigative Journalists managed to find and publish the guidelines of Chinese facilities that have been constructed against the Uyghurs (muslim population that lives in China)
  • The Arab League rejected the US decision (on 18 November) to declare that Israels settlements in Palestinian territory comply with the international law.
  • Diplomacy: President Erdogan (Turkey) visited Qatar. Prime Minister Abe (Japan) met with the Chinese foreign minister.
  • Cryptos: Total market cap at $199bn ( +1.0% w/w, -46% from the 2019 high, -76% from the all time high of January 2018).

The week before (18-24 November):

  • G20 ministerial meeting, Germany escaping technical recession, EU-Singapore trade deal, US and China not reaching phase 1 deal, Apple’s suppliers except from tariffs, district elections in Hong Kong, Israel stroke Iranian targets in Syria, US and South Korea failed to agree on the cost of US troops in the peninsula, Russia returned 3 seized vessels to Ukraine.


Next week:

  • NATO summit begins on Tuesday. Marcron has said that EU should make sure to dictate it’s own fate
  • On Tuesday, the US bill on Hong Kong becomes a law, at the default scenario that President Trump neither signs it nor veto-es it. Counter measures have been threatened by China.
  • OPEC+ meeting will take place in Vienna, starting on Thursday. Analysts do not expect an additional production cap. They expect an extension of the present production cap up until June 2020. The Saudis feel frustrated due to the consequential no compliance of Iraq, Nigeria and Russia. Russia pumps 54K bpd more than agreed for the last 8 months in a row.
  • Monetary meeting of the RBA (Australia) on Tuesday and BOC (Canada) on Wednesday.

The month ahead:

  • IMO 2020 regulations will take effect (?) starting on January. Long positions on oil refiners should be considered
  • The Siberia pipeline, signed in 2014, starts delivering energy from Russia to China
  • The six months deadline for the UK to leave the Chagos Islands, their last foothold in the Indian Ocean, ends.
  • Kim Jong Un (S. Korea) has set an end of year deadline towards the USA.

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